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Miguelitro's avatar

Really interesting article. Glad I stumbled upon it thanks to Mr. Magoon.

I have two observations. First, I would start with the premise “I don’t know” rather than “I am wrong.” Why should one assume a priori that one is wrong? This makes no sense to me. One could be right, for example, but for the wrong reasons. Assuming one is wrong forecloses this inquiry, it seems to me.

The second observation is the utility of Bayesian reasoning, which is the unnatural and highly difficult antidote to confirmation bias--an affliction that gets worse with intelligence. One of the most deluded friends I ever debated with was Glenn, who had a Cambridge mathematics degree. But he just couldn’t accept the possibility that he might be wrong, even when confronted with new compelling evidence. Just didn’t have the humility. Humility is absolutely essential to intellectual progress, and the smarter one is,the less likely one is to possess it.

Appreciate your contribution Mr. Carini. I cut my teeth as a high stakes appellate lawyer, where one is potentially humiliated by error brought to you by your worthy adversary. Keeps you humble. So does good scientific method.

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Michael Magoon's avatar

Very interesting article.

I am coming from a background of social science and history, so I do not have the philosophical background that you do. I primarily write about human material progress.

The title of your article caught my attention as I think a great deal about the dangers of ideology. In fact, I believe that it is the single biggest threat to our progress.

I believe that a key means to cut through the ideological thicket is to focus on results. Virtually everyone in politics acts as if they know what the results of a public policy should be, so all they need to do is implement a policy and then move onto the next one. Any failure is deemed as not having tried hard enough, so you should just double down.

When you start with the assumption that we do not know which policies work (a variation on your quote above) then this opens the possibility to scale-scale experimentation. I guess that this is the equivalent of Empiricism in politics (although I tend to associate philosophical empiricism with Blank Slate thinking, which I disagree with).

But experimentation is not Rationalism. It is an acknowledgment of the great difficulty of even the most intelligent person to understand the outcome of actions in an incredibly complex world.

Any way, you earned my sub. Thanks.

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